Predictions: Golden Globes-Best Picture

Posted on December 20, 2011


Tis the season for certain people to be jolly. Most of us consider this time of year a joyous occasion. We reunite with our loved ones and celebrate the holidays. We look forward to the year ahead and rejoice in the year that was. For studios and producers, this month is when all their hard work pays off.

The films these moguls and iconoclasts put blood, sweat and tears into achieve the recognition they mightactually deserve. The Golden Globe nominations are out and the critics have made their year-end picks for the best films the past twelve months have offered. Although each critics circle gave a wide range of decisions and the HFPA made less ridiculous nominations this year but no clear frontrunners make this awards race more exciting.

Love them or hate them, the Globes do help provide a view into who can become prominent contenders this season. Just as a disclaimer, these predictions are just conjecture. I will only be focusing on the film nominations. My judging criterion is based on seeing the films in theaters and gauging opinion across the internet. Certain films I have been able to download their scripts of awards sites but again these are just my best guesses. My first entry will be for both best picture categories.

Best Picture-Drama

This category is confusing. It consists of six films each with varying quality.  The Descendants, War Horse, Hugo, Moneyball, The Help and The Ides of March excel in filmmaking for different reasons but some of these contenders seemed forced into the category.

Although I am a huge Scorsese fan, I’m probably one of the few opponents of his foray into 3-D. I thought it was heavy on the exposition and light on essential story-telling elements. There were a few key scenes that held no significance to the plot and could have been extracted. I don’t think this should be a contender for best picture. A legend like Scorsese has a better shot at a directing win.

The Ides of March is the second questionable entry into this category. Drive and The Descendants are two of the best films this year and more worthy of recognition than this one. Its political message does resonate with modern politics but it fails to pack a punch like the other movies Ides leading men have starred in this year.

The Descendants is another film worthy of this nomination but I feel it will hold up better at the Oscars. The HFPA seemed to gravitate towards the “younger, flashier” movies so it does not seem likely this emotional tour-de-force will give Mr. Clooney another notch under his belt.

I have not yet seen War Horse which can alter my predictions below.

Ultimately, my prediction for Best Picture is between Moneyball and The Help. If the HFPA continues their M.O., both films are worthy of winning. Both have an A-list cast performing at the top of their game. The writing for both is sharp. Both are adapted wonderfully from their source material. Based on how the night goes, the competition between these two should be something to watch.

Best Picture-Musical or Comedy

Some of the movies in contention at the globes feel shoehorned into certain categories. This feels like one of them. If I could offer one major criticism to the Globes, it would be this: nominate directors, actors, actresses etc. for performances they deserve. Don’t nominate films just to have them nominated.

For this category, the HFPA actually got it mostly right. Except for one. My Week with Marilyn deserves awards but only for two reasons. Michelle Williams completely morphs into the legendary bombshell while Kenneth Branagh commands the screen as Laurence Olivier.  My Week had its fair share of laughs but at its core this film was a drama.

The Muppets should have taken its place here or the category should have been limited to four. But, awell. If the Muppets were present, I would say it be a lock. All of these films are excellent but the Muppets successfully revived a beloved franchise. That should be enough of an award.

The Muppets were unjustly left out of the first round of award nominations this year.

My predictions for this category are another tie as well. I’m thinking it will be between The Artist and Bridesmaids. Both are crowd-pleasers. Both differ on a larger and smaller scale but both have gained enough of solid fan base. As bizarre as it is, the campaign for Uggie can help this gem of a movie while Melissa McCarthy’s  performance is turning enough heads so it could go either way. Both films stand out for different reasons. One is a gross-out female comedy while the other is a silent tribute to old Hollywood. The films have a lot of strong factors that could affect the race but they should be prepared. 50/50 could surprise us all.


More predictions coming soon.

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